Digging Deep: Panning for Fantasy Football Gold

One of the most overlooked subset of fantasy football players are the undrafted or lightly regarded jocks who often rise to prominence from nowhere or seemingly nowhere to make a fantasy impact very early in their careers.

I have a few names to discuss today that probably aren’t on many draft boards and in fact, some of these guys’ names weren’t even called on NFL draft day.

I find it very intriguing that hundreds of athletes were selected above them, players the scouts thought were better, or had better character, or came from a better system or bigger program. But does any of that really matter when you put the pads on?

Often times, the answer is no, but highly-touted players come along with hefty contracts and commitments. I think more importantly, egomaniacal general managers, owners, and coaches feel the need to be right about the picks they make—even when that player’s production doesn’t meet the vision.

So you may ask yourself, “How does that help me play fantasy football?” Well, the truth is we all do the same thing with our fantasy selections, especially in dynasty leagues, and it has to stop! We put so much pride into making the right selection that many times we hold on much too long and let better opportunities pass us by, but we must always be mindful to ask ourselves, “Is the juice worth the squeeze?”

I will use an example my dynasty team where letting go made all the difference. The team I originally drafted in 2007 was putrid and included the likes of Cedric Benson, Mark Clayton, and Vernon Davis, all of whom I drafted many rounds too early.

Eventually, after not being able to generate any trade interest—this is usually a bad sign—I cut them and moved on.

Cedric Benson was handed the starting job that year for Chicago and fell straight on his face. I held on through all of 2007 and into ’08 when he was out of the league before finally giving up.

I’ll admit I was a little disappointed when he found a new home and some success with the Bengals, but there will be many opportunities to find a player of his ilk in the future.

Mark Clayton and Vernon Davis suffered worse fates still, never living up to their potential. But once I realized that available waiver wire players were either better producers or better prospects without regard to my ego (paging Mr. Millen,) I began to truly improve my team.

I didn’t like to admit I made a mistake drafting these guys and that prevented me from cutting them earlier. Just like that proud NFL GM, I wanted to prove that I was right, even if it took a little longer than I hoped, but cutting them was the best choice I ever made.

It allowed me to churn my roster with new emerging players and find hidden gems by making my roster more flexible.

I hate the torment of choosing who to cut, so it’s always a good idea to have your roster ranked from top to bottom. Don’t rank them on where you drafted them but base it on current production and upside.

Either of these factors could change on any given day so keep the rankings fresh. When they are in the bottom 25 percent, those players are prime cut candidates.

If you begin to feel like you love all of your players in the bottom 25 percent, it is probably time to orchestrate a trade—possibly using players on your roster with more value so that these lower players begin to move up your rankings as you pair-down using two-for-one or three-for-one trades.

Sometimes you have to take back a little trash in the trade that you don’t really want but do so if necessary and cut them, too! You then fill those holes with more prospects. I have seen this strategy elsewhere so I don’t claim all the credit, but I do like it.

As you go through this process, you’ll see that a prospect that looks good one week suddenly doesn’t look as good as the next hot player who had a breakout game the week before. Well, don’t sit there trying to prove you were right last week, prove you are right this week. You have to be patient at times though.

You won’t always be right, but soon you’ll see that you are buying and selling to maximize the current value of your team and not the size of your ego. You will see value as a function of production, talent, and opportunity, not based on the time you have invested in this particular player.

You will also see opportunities to pick-up players that are either slow to develop, frustrated their previous owner or fell victim to a knee-jerk reaction from one of your less astute league-mates.

And now on to five players to watch in the weeks and months ahead:



Quarterbacks

Nate Davis, QB, San Francisco 49ers: We want to dig deep, right? Davis probably won’t see the field this year, but I liked what I saw from him in a preseason tilt against Dallas. Shaun Hill and Alex Smith are replaceable players and will be jettisoned eventually and replaced by Davis or someone else. He has a strong arm and played at a small school (Ball State) but keep an eye on him for 2010 and beyond.
Running Backs

Lex Hilliard, RB, Miami Dolphins: Ronnie Brown is brittle and Ricky Williams will most likely retire after this season. In steps Hilliard, a hard-nosed 2008 sixth rounder out of Montana, a player that coaches and fans love. He was on the practice squad a year ago but earned a roster spot this season after an impressive pre-season and would see a nice bump if (when) an injury hits the Miami backfield.
Wide Receivers

Sammie Stroughter, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Stroughter, a seventh-round pick, appears to have won the slot job in Tampa. I seem to detect a recent micro-trend where smaller receivers are finding early success in the league at an increasing rate – with the slot being a prime proving-ground. It seems that Wes Welker’s emergence signaled a trend. Skillful route-running and speed/quickness are often superior to beastly athleticism in today’s wide-open schemes, especially when seeking rookie WR production. The Bucs have inconsistent receivers (year over year) in front of the former Oregon State Duck, and they were all but too happy to drop Dexter Jackson, drafted for the same job a year ago. Maybe Freeman to Stroughter is the next prolific NFL hook-up? It could happen!

Sam Hurd, WR, Dallas Cowboys: So I finally include a non-rookie, and why not? At 24, Hurd is entering his magical third year, after earning his way onto the Cowboys again - going undrafted out of Northern Illinois in 2007. No Cowboy receiver is sure thing this year but Tony Romo will put up stats and Hurd has maybe the best hands on the team. He won’t overwhelm you with speed but was able to learn under Terrell Owens (there are some things to learn from TO) to be dedicated to your craft. He’s my dark-horse candidate to become the eventual No. 1 in Big D.

Mike Wallace, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers: The former Ole Miss Rebel will share the No. 3role with Texas alum Limas Sweed. Wallace came out of the SEC so he has played top-notch competition and has better deep speed than Sweed, while the latter may still have a higher ceiling. I see Wallace catching several long touchdowns off play-action this year. I will also note that while they don’t pass much, the Steelers have an excellent track-record identifying receiving talent over the last decade (Ward, Holmes & Burress come to mind.)
Sorry if I got a little long-winded this week, but I hope the strategy-session gave you a tip or two you can apply to your teams. Next week, we’ll see who made his mark on the NFL landscape in week one!

Digging Deep: Emerging Fantasy Football Rookies with Upside

Digging Deep…

To me, fantasy football is much like a stock or commodities market, with players constantly losing or gaining value. The most volatile and unpredictable of these commodities are the young, unproven and unknown chaps in the first three years of their careers, especially those green rookies still trying to wipe the sleep from their tired varsity eyes. But these players still possess the greatest fantasy factor -upside. Where is the next Marques Colston, Priest Holmes, or Kurt Warner – players who rose from obscurity to greatness?

Because I choose to scrutinize these talents as stocks or commodities within a market, I will discuss concepts most relevant to dynasty leaguers, as sometimes these players might not emerge statistically right away. However, I hope this column may serve dynasty, keeper and redraft leaguers alike by examining promising players coming on strong and giving themselves potential to make a fantasy impact or to increase their value after being acquired for penny-stock prices.

Today, I’ll focus strictly on rookies. I am going to use a recently-completed 36-pick (three rounds, 12 teams) rookie draft from one of my leagues as a reference point, eliminating everyone drafted. So, even if you’ve already had your draft - depending on the size of your league - most or many of these players may still be available. We’ll cover five this week and I’ll throw you five more next week in no particular order. I hope this keeps you fantasy addicts satisfied for the time being.

Running Backs:

Mike Goodson, Carolina Panthers – Wow. I can’t believe this guy was sitting there. When you read “reminds me of Reggie Bush,” this is a positive no matter what you think of Bush’s career production. Remember, we are talking talent, opportunity, and cheap investments! You would have needed the first pick in a rookie-draft to nail Reggie a couple years back. Goodson might be had for nothing. I made a play to get Jonathan Stewart in a dynasty league this offseason, and have a DeAngelo Williams/Stewart combo in a four-player keeper league. I picked up Goodson in the dynasty and am still considering him in the keeper because 1) Stewart hasn’t been on the field in two weeks and nagging injuries continue to be a concern, 2) Goodson has talent and may be the best pass-catching RB on the team (even when Stewart returns) and 3) Carolina was third in the league in rushing yards last year and No. 1 in rushing scores with 30!

Javon Ringer, Tennessee Titans – Thought to be a first-day if not a first-round pick a year ago, Ringer slipped to the end of the fifth round in this year’s NFL draft. At first glance, what appears to be an unlucky landing spot on a team with Chris Johnson and LenDale White might not be so bad after all. White will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year and the call here is he doesn’t re-sign with Tennessee. This leaves Ringer to share with Johnson in what still projects to be a run-first offense for the foreseeable future. A Johnson injury this year sends him to front of the line on waivers. Tennessee was No. 2 in rushing TDs and seventh in rushing yards in ’09 and have an established philosophy of running the ball. If you have room or depend on Johnson as your No. 1 RB, give him a serious look.

Wide Receivers:

Deon Butler, Seattle Seahawks – I got props from a Penn State observer after nabbing this guy off the wire. He caught two passes in last week’s preseason tilt, including a TD bomb on the team’s opening possession. Butler only has the frail and underachieving Deon Branch (rumored to possibly not make the team) and Nate Burleson in front of him. Long-term, Houshmandzadeh is 31 years old and may not really be a true No. 1 WR anyway. Weird factors here: Seattle has historically been passing-friendly but has a run-first regime in town. They have little talent in the backfield, but Hasselbeck is coming off an injury and not getting any younger. I guess that’s all a wash.

Austin Collie, Indianapolis Colts – Early word is he’s a slight favorite to win the third WR spot over the talented Pierre Garcon, a sleeper in his own right. Anthony Gonzalez has progressed but not displayed dominant skills, and Wayne will turn 31 during the season. They seemed to be missing something on offense last year. Perhaps Collie in the slot was that ingredient. He put up monster numbers in college and has achieved the coveted “gym rat” status from his head coach. Perhaps he also packed his lunch pail.

Ramses Barden, NY Giants – Unbelievably to me, Barden didn’t get selected in the rookie draft. I was able to pick him up on the cheap (minimum bid) right after because I read a report that he was the “breakout player of camp,” which is never a poor sign. However, that was two weeks ago and he has seen limited preseason production. He has the same great opportunity Hakeem Nicks does with no established players in front of him having proven they have top-end talent. He came out of a small school (Cal Poly) so he may take a little time, but he’s big, fast and isn’t scared to sacrifice his body to make the catch.
So meditate on a few of these names this week and see what the cosmos brings back to you. Maybe one of these penny-stocks turns into a blue chipper.