Wednesday, July 31, 2013

The Coolest 2QB League Ever


Uncle Benny's Fantasy Football League, the greatest league in the USA! OK, so a lot of that is official titling, but Uncle Benny's is both my home league and the most unique league I have ever been associated with. Uncle Benny's (UB) is a 2QB auction keeper league, which I think bears significance as recently, many are beginning to discover 2QB leagues. UB is based on a performance scoring model and while a regular season fantasy playoff results in a bowl champion, the ultimate champion is decided at the end of the NFL Playoffs based on overall points. Due to certain aspects covered below, it will always be a ten team (or less) league, unless you tweak the rules.

Starting line-ups consist of 2QB/2RB/3WR/TE/Flex/K and a team defense, but unlike most fantasy leagues where team defenses are often the last to go, almost every NFL team goes down with a bidding war in the UB. Each franchise controls three NFL teams from which to select a DST, but with a twist: each of the three teams give you an additional 10 points for a real NFL win that week. And if that team makes the NFL playoffs, up to 30 points are to be had for each advancing round. The topper? The winning Super Bowl team adds a tidy 100 points to your total, often leaving the balance of league power in question until the final day of the season.

                   

But let's start from the beginning and truly everyone's favorite, Draft Day. More specifically in this case, Auction Day. I suggest if you play in an Uncle Benny's format, be there for an old school in-person auction and bring in an impartial auctioneer. Positions are auctioned in order beginning with each NFL team. Rookies are next, followed by the veterans: QB, RB, WR, TE and K. The natural breaks between positions work out well in a functional sense and allow everyone the ability to keep track of filling a roster. The order of players is based on general ranking consensus (just pick an arbitrary rank list.) Bidding caps vary by team based on the previous years' finish with 10th place receiving $75, descending $2 each place down to a low of $57 for a 1st place finish. During the inaugural auction, each teams receives $75. Minimum bidding is $0.25.

On to the keepers. Each team is allowed to keep up to 4 players from the previous season for $0.50 over his previous draft value. Two additional slots may be kept for "red shirt" players, those that have never played in more than 2 games of UB play. And one team may be kept from year to year. Keeper slots, red shirt slots, and team protection slots are all trade-able commodities and may be bought and sold for draft dollars.

Waivers are purely first come first served beginning at 8 AM Tuesday morning. While this isn't for everyone, it is a Wild West style showdown requiring the precise timing of one's clock and prioritizing targets. Didn't get the free agent you wanted? Don't sweat it as by late that evening, each team will have to submit a full bench of their players listed as preliminary starters for the week accompanied by a bench of up to ten back-ups. Of the ten reserve players, only five (5) may be protected, leaving any open spots as open game to be "stripped," in Uncle Benny speak. Strips and Wild West free agent pick-ups, while a bit woolly, provide constant excitement week to week that a waiver system simply cannot deliver. The stripping of another teams prized recruit RB because the bye weeks have him squeezed makes for superior game-play. Likewise, you will agonize some weeks knowing you have to put your prized QB prospect in limbo. These things will hurt feelings and fray friendships, but not without a price, as any such transaction will cost the owner $5 REAL DOLLARS. This money is the basis for the Benny Bowl Champion pot.

Currently, we do a 75/25 split for the Benny Bowl Champ and runner up. Also of note, the playoffs run in Weeks 15-17, with a 14 week regular season. The schedule and weeks could be tweaked, but it allows for a balanced home and away schedule, as a hefty 5.5 point advantage favors the home team weekly (7 home/7 away.) Eight of ten teams make the playoffs so no playoff bye weeks, but the home teams in each week the fantasy playoffs get a hefty 10.5 point advantage. Only in the Benny Bowl Championship does the advantage almost cease as the higher seeded team gets a 0.5 point bump to settle any ties. [Note: you could easily take the top 6 teams and award two first round byes.]

While winning the Benny Bowl is prestigious, the ultimate crown is decided by an overall points championship as some teams and players continue to contribute into the NFL postseason. Speaking of points, let's hit player scoring. The performance scoring system rewards players who hit significant yardage marks as well as players who score TDs, especially on big plays.

Quarterbacks get 6 points for all passing TDs. In addition, 1 point is added for the length of TD for every 10 yards. For example a 34 yard TD pass is good for 9 points [6 + 3]. If a QB runs for a TD, that figure doubles, so a 22 yard TD run by a QB is 16 points [(6+2) x 2]. Interceptions are always -3 and lost fumbles -2. In addition, once a QB attains the 250 yard mark, he gets 10 points and 1 additional point for every 10 yards over 250. As you can imagine, big days are rewarded. QBs may also earn 5 points if they hit 50 yards rushing with the same 1 point for every 10 yards over.

Running backs receive 6 points per rushing TD + 1 point per 10 yards on big plays. Those numbers are doubled for any receiving TDs or passing TDs. 10 points is awarded at 100 yards rushing and 5 points at 50 receiving yards.

Wide Receivers are the inverse, receiving 10 points at 100 receiving yards and 5 points at 50 yards rushing. Over those marks, every ten yard equals 1 additional point. WRs get the same bonus points for long receiving TDs and the double points for rushing TDs. If an offensive player scores a special teams TD, either by punt or kickoff return, he is awarded 10 points for the TD + yardage so a 90+ yard KO return is good for 19 points (think about that when you sleep on DeSean Jackson in your next draft!)


Tight End scoring gives the position a boost with receiving TDs worth a whopping 10 points each and yardage requirements at 50 yards to get 5 points (1 point per 10 yards thereafter.) While a rushing TD by a Tight End would be 20 points plus, these have been rare. I cannot honestly recall one but I'm sure it's happened.

Team defenses and special teams can be played separately with defensive and return TDs counting 10 points each + yardage bonuses (1pt/10yds.) Sacks are good for 2 points each while interceptions and fumble recoveries are 3 points. A shutout adds 10 points to the D total. And of course the 10 points per team win is huge. The wins and losses really matter.

I hope we didn't get bogged down there because while complicated on the surface, everything quickly makes sense, and the charge that you get when you see one of your players running for a big score is unmatched. Waiting out a game to make sure your RB gets enough carries to total 100 yards becomes a great reason to stay interested in a blow out.

Teams face off in head to head match-ups each week with the winning team being awarded an additional 50 points towards the points title. The 50 win points are also added for each fantasy playoff win including the Benny Bowl. After week 17, franchises continue to set as complete a line-up as possible for each round of the playoffs. When combined with the team win points, the overall championship is almost always up for grabs entering the NFL playoffs where anything can happen.

After playing in many leagues, I just don't think anything is close to as much fun. With the exponential rewards, you are constantly looking for the next explosive talent. Strategies run deep as ultimately, every play matters.

Monday, July 29, 2013

The Case Against Larry Fitzgerald

Larry Fitzgerald. The name synonymous with hard work and professionalism. With heart and consistency. He’s the guy who won’t bail on his team when the going gets tough. The anti-TO. The name we respect on the field and always trust on our fantasy teams.

Larry Fitzgerald is one of my favorite players and as a dynasty PPR manager of Fitz over the past three seasons, I have examined his work closely. In 2012, the results were pedestrian at best as Fitz had his worst statistical season and failed to gain 1000 yards for only the third time in his nine year career. However, in 2013, many in the fantasy community have us believing that Carson Palmer’s arrival in the desert will return Mr. Fitzgerald to his former perch high above Fantasy Football Valley.

And while I do believe the depths of 2011 will not be revisited this season, hoping to draft Fitz onto your dynasty team as a #1 Wide Receiver with a mid-third round ADP is more than optimistic.

Here are the facts on Larry Fitzgerald in 2013. He’s 30. Maybe you read he was still 29 or even 28, but he’ll be 30 on August 31, 2013, before the season begins. Wide Receivers historically begin to decline after age 30 so the prime of his career is officially in the past. One may point to cases of anomalies like Andre Johnson and Steve Smith but these players are uncommon exceptions and have indeed shown the effects of aging on football statistics.

Fitzgerald’s percentage of Cardinals passing offense (number of receptions) has declined from 32% in 2010, to 26% in 2011, to 21% in 2012. That’s a trend.

He is still the #1 weapon in the Cards’ attack, but every opponent knows it. He’ll play against three good to great defenses over 6 divisional games and every team the Cards play will be ready to give Fitz a lot of attention. The NFC West was the perfect division for Arizona’s superior aerial attack 5 years ago but certainly not today.

Improving young weapons like Michael Floyd, Andre Roberts and Rob Housler will take on more of the load; they almost have to, as defenses continue to focus on Fitzgerald. Arizona will once again search for a ground game, this time pinning hopes to oft injured Rashard Mendenhall. Carson Palmer last helped Chad Ocho Johnson and TJ Housh (“Championship”) to Top 10 seasons in 2007, but hasn’t had a top 10 receiver since, with Ocho grabbing one more top 15 finish in 2009. I could see Larry Fitz finishing near the 230 PPR points (72/1047/9) Ocho collected that year.

Bruce Arians as a first time head coach will not have the luxury of a young athletic Andrew Luck to mask a poor offensive line in Arizona. Palmer will have difficulty delivering the downfield throws required to make the Arians O successful and if he takes too many hits in attempting to do so, just see 2012 for the QB quagmire sure to follow.

After posting absolutely the worst advanced stats among all wide receivers last season, Larry Fitzgerald will absolutely rebound in 2013, but he will not lead you to a fantasy championship as your WR1. As such, I cannot advise to draft him at his current WR9 ADP. I’d prefer Randall Cobb or Victor Cruz at the usual mid-third round asking price. In those two you have much younger players who fill integral roles on better offenses. I may even roll the dice on Hakeem Nicks there, but I’d likely go in a different direction altogether and draft a young stud QB like Cam Newton or Andrew Luck or take Gronkowski if he was there. I believe a higher upside, later round player like Cecil Shorts (WR30) or Mike Williams (WR42) is going to deliver 90% of Fitzgerald. If you want a older vet, Steve Smith just came off 73/1174/4 and has an even later ADP of WR45. Based on regression models, Smith and Fitz could easily deliver the same stats over the next three years. Over all of those options, I would most value Eric Decker (WR22) in the mid-5th of a 12 team league.

If you have Fitz on your team this year, you still have options. The current ADP data suggest you can get significant trade value for Fitzgerald. My current advice is to package him for a possible upgrade to one of the “Big 5” dynasty WRs or consider a straight up deal if the Cruz or Cobb owner will bite. It may be later, but one day soon you will thank me.