The Case Against Larry Fitzgerald

Larry Fitzgerald. The name synonymous with hard work and professionalism. With heart and consistency. He’s the guy who won’t bail on his team when the going gets tough. The anti-TO. The name we respect on the field and always trust on our fantasy teams.

Larry Fitzgerald is one of my favorite players and as a dynasty PPR manager of Fitz over the past three seasons, I have examined his work closely. In 2012, the results were pedestrian at best as Fitz had his worst statistical season and failed to gain 1000 yards for only the third time in his nine year career. However, in 2013, many in the fantasy community have us believing that Carson Palmer’s arrival in the desert will return Mr. Fitzgerald to his former perch high above Fantasy Football Valley.

And while I do believe the depths of 2011 will not be revisited this season, hoping to draft Fitz onto your dynasty team as a #1 Wide Receiver with a mid-third round ADP is more than optimistic.

Here are the facts on Larry Fitzgerald in 2013. He’s 30. Maybe you read he was still 29 or even 28, but he’ll be 30 on August 31, 2013, before the season begins. Wide Receivers historically begin to decline after age 30 so the prime of his career is officially in the past. One may point to cases of anomalies like Andre Johnson and Steve Smith but these players are uncommon exceptions and have indeed shown the effects of aging on football statistics.

Fitzgerald’s percentage of Cardinals passing offense (number of receptions) has declined from 32% in 2010, to 26% in 2011, to 21% in 2012. That’s a trend.

He is still the #1 weapon in the Cards’ attack, but every opponent knows it. He’ll play against three good to great defenses over 6 divisional games and every team the Cards play will be ready to give Fitz a lot of attention. The NFC West was the perfect division for Arizona’s superior aerial attack 5 years ago but certainly not today.

Improving young weapons like Michael Floyd, Andre Roberts and Rob Housler will take on more of the load; they almost have to, as defenses continue to focus on Fitzgerald. Arizona will once again search for a ground game, this time pinning hopes to oft injured Rashard Mendenhall. Carson Palmer last helped Chad Ocho Johnson and TJ Housh (“Championship”) to Top 10 seasons in 2007, but hasn’t had a top 10 receiver since, with Ocho grabbing one more top 15 finish in 2009. I could see Larry Fitz finishing near the 230 PPR points (72/1047/9) Ocho collected that year.

Bruce Arians as a first time head coach will not have the luxury of a young athletic Andrew Luck to mask a poor offensive line in Arizona. Palmer will have difficulty delivering the downfield throws required to make the Arians O successful and if he takes too many hits in attempting to do so, just see 2012 for the QB quagmire sure to follow.

After posting absolutely the worst advanced stats among all wide receivers last season, Larry Fitzgerald will absolutely rebound in 2013, but he will not lead you to a fantasy championship as your WR1. As such, I cannot advise to draft him at his current WR9 ADP. I’d prefer Randall Cobb or Victor Cruz at the usual mid-third round asking price. In those two you have much younger players who fill integral roles on better offenses. I may even roll the dice on Hakeem Nicks there, but I’d likely go in a different direction altogether and draft a young stud QB like Cam Newton or Andrew Luck or take Gronkowski if he was there. I believe a higher upside, later round player like Cecil Shorts (WR30) or Mike Williams (WR42) is going to deliver 90% of Fitzgerald. If you want a older vet, Steve Smith just came off 73/1174/4 and has an even later ADP of WR45. Based on regression models, Smith and Fitz could easily deliver the same stats over the next three years. Over all of those options, I would most value Eric Decker (WR22) in the mid-5th of a 12 team league.

If you have Fitz on your team this year, you still have options. The current ADP data suggest you can get significant trade value for Fitzgerald. My current advice is to package him for a possible upgrade to one of the “Big 5” dynasty WRs or consider a straight up deal if the Cruz or Cobb owner will bite. It may be later, but one day soon you will thank me.