Thursday, July 15, 2010

Jonathan Stewart's Value

One of our favorite players to debate these days is Jonathan Stewart, the third-year running back for the Carolina Panthers (I need to find a way to write Caaar-ro-lina Paaan-thers like Chris Berman says it.) I digress.

Anyway, I believe J-Stew is a beast, and while "stuck" in an ultra-productive platoon with a very talented DeAngelo Williams, he is gifted enough to produce another 1000+ yard, 10 TD season in 2010. However, in another year, at the ripe ol' age of 24, he will be ready to assume a 1600+ yds, 16 TD type of role for 4-5 years.

To support my position, I offer you the following age comparisons:

At 23.6 years old, J-Stew is YOUNGER than:

Chris Johnson, Age 25.0
AD Adrian Peterson, Age: 25.6
MJD Maurice Jones-Drew, Age: 25.6
Ray Rice, Age: 23.8
Jamaal Charles, Age: 23.9
Shonn Greene, Age: 25.1
Montario Hardesty, Age: 23.7 (rookie!)
Matt Forte, Age: 24.9
Steve Slaton, Age: 24.8

And is months older than:
Knowshon Moreno, Age: 23.2
Felix Jones, Age: 23.4
Ryan Matthews, Age: 23.4 (rookie!)
Rashard Mendenhall, Age 23.3
Darren McFadden, Age: 23.1
CJ Spiller, Age: 23.0 (rookie!)

What can we draw from these numbers? While Stewart has logged 2 full years in the league, he is essentially the same age as Matthews, Spiller and Hardesty. Matthews & Spiller will be top 4 selections in most rookie drafts and Hardesty is a sure-fire 1st rounder.

I traded my 2010 Dynasty 1st round pick last year (before the 2009 rookie draft) + Lendale White to acquire Stewart (along with a 2010 2nd rounder.) That 1st round pick is now officially 1.05 this year. While I had hoped that pick would be worse (meaning I would have finished higher in the standings!) I am still very happy with the trade. The big 4 in this draft - Dez Bryant, Jahvid Best, and the aforementioned Spiller & Matthews - will certainly be gone by the 5th pick. While there are some decent backs left (like Hardesty) at 5, there is no talent or situation that matches Stewart's. I would still trade out of the #2 rookie pick today to nab Stewart.