Two intriguing receivers available in most rookie drafts towards the end of round 1 and the beginning of round 2 are the Redskins' Leonard Hankerson out of The U and the Chargers' Vincent Brown from San Diego State.
First let's take a look at Hankerson. While not the most amazing athlete, I really like the little things Hankerson does and to me, he catches the ball with his hands better than anyone in the 2010 draft class outside of AJ Green. Let's take a look:
The second intriguing aspect of Hankerson's hands is that they were built and not made. After catching a paltry 17 catches in his first two years in college, Hankerson upped that total 45 grabs his Junior year before exploding for 73 catches with over 1100 yeards and 13 TDs as a Senior. Much of this improvement is credited to his work with former Miami Dolphin, Mark "Super" Duper, who simply says "You can't be a great receiver if you can't catch the football." Here is part 1 but the entire 6 part series may be found on YouTube.
And in this corner, I give you Vincent Brown. Many are eying the former SDSU Aztec at the top of Round 2 in upcoming rookie drafts, but others are concerned about playing within a wide open system against lesser competition in the Mountain West. Finding a lot of tape on Brown is a little more difficult but I found two packages worth your time against two of the top programs in the conference, Utah and TCU.
Brown's hands don't wow me upon first review, but I think he compares rather favorably with a player like Greg Little. He does a good job of using his body to shield off defenders. Brown just flat drops a ball about 1 minute in on the Utah reel with a few defenders around him but I see raw athletic ability that may translate to the NFL. He obviously carried SDSU in several games this year, finishing 2012 with 69/1350/10, right on pace with Hankerson's numbers. While a bit undersized, I see Brown as a Derrick Mason type and with Rivers at QB, that makes for a nice option in PPR leagues in the early 2nd of a rookie draft or an ideal late round sleeper in dynasty start-ups.
Who will have the better career? Both will have opportunities to contribute early and while I like Hankerson's skill set, Brown's ideal QB situation gives him the edge. Agree? Disagree? Let me here from you on this one.
Thursday, July 14, 2011
Wednesday, July 6, 2011
PPR Championship Gumbo
When it comes to making good gumbo, or any great recipe for that matter, the key is always balance. This same great balance is often found in championship pro sports teams – see the Dallas Mavericks and Boston Bruins recent successes - and believe it or not, this concept even applies to your fantasy team.
The media often references billionaire owners like Dan Snyder building “fantasy teams” that don’t win, but guess what, look who won your league last year. Did he have the best team on paper? Probably not. Simply acquiring the most talent is important but that’s not all there is, man.
If you are reading this, you are probably not a novice. You have a decent understanding of the players on the scene, their average ADP, and the general perception of these players by fantasy experts and the talking heads on ESPN and NFLN.
So, how the BLEEP do I make gumbo with it!?!? Well, my friend, I am going try to share a recipe that I stole from a few others. I borrowed a little of this and a little of that from a 12 team dynasty league where I was (and still am) getting killed (1 playoff appearance in 4 years) and turned it into a championship recipe in a ridiculously competitive 24 team league – The FPL Championship (@FPLChampionship.)
Our natural impulse when we are losing in a league is to tune out and focus our energy towards more productive areas. I advise to only have a handful of teams as an inordinately high number of leagues will make it easier to tune out and thus, become a BAD LEAGUEMATE. Don’t be that guy. It’s never a good idea to tune out in a dynasty league since emerging late season stars can often be had on the cheap, but also stay focused on what the winning teams are doing to keep winning.
So what did I learn by getting my butt kicked? Well, there were two teams in this league that intrigued me. They weren’t the most talented teams in the league, but they were consistently in the top half. However, what they had was balance with reliable players at key spots.
Team A has Peyton Manning, Adrian Peterson, and Jason Witten - great cornerstones. With this core of players, the owner has made the playoffs 3 out of 4 years of the league’s existence (albeit in a weak division) surrounding these core players with the likes of Marques Colston as a #1 WR, Brandon Jacobs and Mario Manningham. The lesson I took away: the Big 3 keeps this team competitive. These three players provide weekly advantages at their spots and while this hasn’t been a contender, I think it highlights the importance of certain positions.
Team B (The 2008 and 2009 Champ) features a Schaub/Cutler QB combo but a monster WR corps of Larry Fitzgerald, Vincent Jackson, Dwayne Bowe and Wes Welker. This is an incredible PPR study team. He didn’t make the playoffs in 2010 but won in 2009 and 2008 with a solid contribution from Ryan Grant and solid quarterbacking. Dallas Clark was his 08-09 TE – another weekly advantage player. Big scoring aspect here as this league lets you start 1 RB/4 WR (2/3 and 3/2 are the other legal configurations) so he can usually get all his talent in the line-up.
Now, a rundown of my (poorly performing) team: Chris Johnson, Darren McFadden (traded Addai to acquire – my best move,) Jonathan Stewart (acquired with draft pick that turned into Lesean McCoy – my worst move?,) Philip Rivers (to replace an ineffective Palmer & Flacco,) Desean Jackson, Steve Smith (CAR,) Austin Collie, Michael Crabtree, and Dustin Keller. Last year, I traded Mike Wallace, Tampa Mike Williams and Flacco for Rivers/Crabtree. I am listing a few more of my players, mainly because I really felt (and often still feel) that this is a deep team that I will eventually be able to roll out with no match-up plays - just a pure talented match-up proof line-up. However, this hasn’t happened yet. What’s wrong with this apparently talented group?
I have some ideas. First of all, the lack of a match-up advantage TE is killing me. I gave up too early on Vernon Davis and it haunts me still. If you don’t have this position squared away, you will battle your own poltergeist in a 12 team PPR. I know people say wait after so and so is off the board but in my opinion, this is the most underrated position that is vital to winning weekly in a PPR. This can’t be overstated. If you think a TE in that second group is poised to break out, it’s a fair risk to go a round or two early - go against the flow when the run finally starts (if you yourself don’t set off a run.) Lesson #1: A weekly TE match-up advantage (with high target numbers) is a key to winning in PPR.
Secondly, Chris Johnson, while extremely talented and productive just doesn’t seem to win games for me. I don’t quite understand it but this phenomenon certainly points to the possibility Team A’s success may be more attributable to Peyton and Witten than Adrian Peterson. You will never find a QB and rarely a TE on waivers that will match their production, but there is a fair chance of scooping up a productive back. That’s exactly how Team B snagged Ryan Grant and he was good enough. Lesson #2: Maybe a top 5 RB isn’t as important as I thought.
Third, my receiving corps, while it has some nice parts, is not a strong enough unit overall. I’ve seen it written that PPR levels the playing field making elite options less important. This could not be further from the truth. PPR actually elevates the importance of elite receivers. You MUST have a top 10 WR. There are not a lot of high volume targets in the league. Collie makes for great #2 PPR WR but Desean Jackson is an ill fitting #1 in this format (no pts for return TDs – ouch!) but he also makes for decent #2. [Interesting side note: Jackson is dominant in my bonus TD non-PPR league that gives return TD points - #1 in 2010.] Lesson #3: acquire a top 5 (high target) WR and don’t be afraid to keep building WR depth in the middle rounds.
The fourth issue was my QB, but I think I have this fixed with Rivers. I bombed using a third round start-up pick on Carson Palmer. However, when I knew the end was near, I traded him when he still had a little value. See the aforementioned Peyton Manning as Lesson #4 comes into focus: a top 5 QB is vital to consistently winning – PPR or otherwise.
So I have been taught my lessons. Let’s see what I learned.
I was invited this past year (2010) to participate in the inaugural season of the Fantasy Premier League Championship. I was really excited to participate in a new PPR dynasty keeper league as I immediately identified the scoring similarities and wanted to test my skills and theories against a few fantasy experts!
I was ready to go all in on my new strategy. Fortunately, I drew a pick towards the end of round 1 and despite knowing the statistics favor teams picking early, I felt really good. I was hopefully going to get to use two lessons above right away and in fact, lessons 2 and 3 since the top 5 backs would already be gone. Sweet!
As my pick came up, my top target’s names stared back: Larry Fitzgerald. I knew people were down on him with the QB situation but he is Larry Freaking Fitzgerald! A once in a decade talent without the injury risks associated with Andre and Calvin Johnson; a player who epitomizes hard work. This is a #1 building block and as I have witnessed, a major cog on a winning team in 2008 and 2009. To be frank, my nerves were tested, but this was the right call.
With a quick second pick at the top of round 2, I went after Peyton Manning at 14 (spotting a trend yet?) Now the long wait but I have now acquired true #1 players at 2 critical positions. I had a chance at Welker in the third but you can’t wait forever on a young back so I grabbed Jonathan Stewart followed by Michael Crabtree in 4th – not my best picks but fair based on ADP and they are young making them more viable long term. Now another long wait until I can grab that high volume TE at the end of the 5th. As expected, Gates, Clark and Davis fly off the board but when I get back around, I have my choice of Witten or Jermichael Finley. I had targeted the vet since he was part of our winners list above and I had just gone upside twice before. If I choose wrong there or he is gone, my draft plan may not have worked at all. I come back to take Felix Jones and secure my young upside backfield. However, I have to play two backs weekly – a waiver wire RB will have to play a factor in my season (much like the Grant scenario above.)
I spent the next few rounds building depth and doing a little protection. I grabbed Austin Collie, a player who I was especially familiar with – in the 11th and nabbed my favorite rookie WR, Tampa Mike Williams along with his young QB Josh Freeman, even later. I like upside over reliability late since I will usually turn over the bottom quarter of most of my rosters through waivers.
“Wha happen?”
Well, I followed the blueprint but lady luck always will always be a factor. Felix Jones caught enough passes to consistently draw starts but Stewart was a risky underperformer. When Ryan Grant went down to injury early, the Brandon Jackson hype train went in hyperdrive, which resulted in me being outbid for his services and drawing a waiver consolation prize of? Peyton Hillis. Hillis instantly became a weekly starter and suddenly, while not jumping off the page, my team became a consistent point scorer week in and week out. Everyone had a role; most were weekly contributors with each having the potential to produce above average numbers in any given week. The WR depth proved vital too as byes and injuries forced me to juggle line-ups almost weekly, some weeks forcing me into using a waiver option. I even had to start Brian Hartline one week to stay with my 2 RB - 4 WR weekly line-up strategy.
But somehow some way, I won the whole damn thing – a 24 team super league. I rarely set the high score but the consistency I was able to attain meant everything. I could count on a weekly point total that through various combinations (and the same core,) I was able to hit almost every week. This trend continued through the fantasy playoffs. Balance trumped explosion. It helped reframe how I thought of this little game we play.
I applied my lessons and it appears my hypothesis was proven correct – this time. Sometimes, it really is about having the best team and not about having the best players. Oh yeah, the gumbo. It tasted delicious! So maybe I’m not the best cook or metaphorical writer. Sue me.
If you are reading this, you are probably not a novice. You have a decent understanding of the players on the scene, their average ADP, and the general perception of these players by fantasy experts and the talking heads on ESPN and NFLN.
So, how the BLEEP do I make gumbo with it!?!? Well, my friend, I am going try to share a recipe that I stole from a few others. I borrowed a little of this and a little of that from a 12 team dynasty league where I was (and still am) getting killed (1 playoff appearance in 4 years) and turned it into a championship recipe in a ridiculously competitive 24 team league – The FPL Championship (@FPLChampionship.)
Our natural impulse when we are losing in a league is to tune out and focus our energy towards more productive areas. I advise to only have a handful of teams as an inordinately high number of leagues will make it easier to tune out and thus, become a BAD LEAGUEMATE. Don’t be that guy. It’s never a good idea to tune out in a dynasty league since emerging late season stars can often be had on the cheap, but also stay focused on what the winning teams are doing to keep winning.
So what did I learn by getting my butt kicked? Well, there were two teams in this league that intrigued me. They weren’t the most talented teams in the league, but they were consistently in the top half. However, what they had was balance with reliable players at key spots.
Team A has Peyton Manning, Adrian Peterson, and Jason Witten - great cornerstones. With this core of players, the owner has made the playoffs 3 out of 4 years of the league’s existence (albeit in a weak division) surrounding these core players with the likes of Marques Colston as a #1 WR, Brandon Jacobs and Mario Manningham. The lesson I took away: the Big 3 keeps this team competitive. These three players provide weekly advantages at their spots and while this hasn’t been a contender, I think it highlights the importance of certain positions.
Team B (The 2008 and 2009 Champ) features a Schaub/Cutler QB combo but a monster WR corps of Larry Fitzgerald, Vincent Jackson, Dwayne Bowe and Wes Welker. This is an incredible PPR study team. He didn’t make the playoffs in 2010 but won in 2009 and 2008 with a solid contribution from Ryan Grant and solid quarterbacking. Dallas Clark was his 08-09 TE – another weekly advantage player. Big scoring aspect here as this league lets you start 1 RB/4 WR (2/3 and 3/2 are the other legal configurations) so he can usually get all his talent in the line-up.
Now, a rundown of my (poorly performing) team: Chris Johnson, Darren McFadden (traded Addai to acquire – my best move,) Jonathan Stewart (acquired with draft pick that turned into Lesean McCoy – my worst move?,) Philip Rivers (to replace an ineffective Palmer & Flacco,) Desean Jackson, Steve Smith (CAR,) Austin Collie, Michael Crabtree, and Dustin Keller. Last year, I traded Mike Wallace, Tampa Mike Williams and Flacco for Rivers/Crabtree. I am listing a few more of my players, mainly because I really felt (and often still feel) that this is a deep team that I will eventually be able to roll out with no match-up plays - just a pure talented match-up proof line-up. However, this hasn’t happened yet. What’s wrong with this apparently talented group?
I have some ideas. First of all, the lack of a match-up advantage TE is killing me. I gave up too early on Vernon Davis and it haunts me still. If you don’t have this position squared away, you will battle your own poltergeist in a 12 team PPR. I know people say wait after so and so is off the board but in my opinion, this is the most underrated position that is vital to winning weekly in a PPR. This can’t be overstated. If you think a TE in that second group is poised to break out, it’s a fair risk to go a round or two early - go against the flow when the run finally starts (if you yourself don’t set off a run.) Lesson #1: A weekly TE match-up advantage (with high target numbers) is a key to winning in PPR.
Secondly, Chris Johnson, while extremely talented and productive just doesn’t seem to win games for me. I don’t quite understand it but this phenomenon certainly points to the possibility Team A’s success may be more attributable to Peyton and Witten than Adrian Peterson. You will never find a QB and rarely a TE on waivers that will match their production, but there is a fair chance of scooping up a productive back. That’s exactly how Team B snagged Ryan Grant and he was good enough. Lesson #2: Maybe a top 5 RB isn’t as important as I thought.
Third, my receiving corps, while it has some nice parts, is not a strong enough unit overall. I’ve seen it written that PPR levels the playing field making elite options less important. This could not be further from the truth. PPR actually elevates the importance of elite receivers. You MUST have a top 10 WR. There are not a lot of high volume targets in the league. Collie makes for great #2 PPR WR but Desean Jackson is an ill fitting #1 in this format (no pts for return TDs – ouch!) but he also makes for decent #2. [Interesting side note: Jackson is dominant in my bonus TD non-PPR league that gives return TD points - #1 in 2010.] Lesson #3: acquire a top 5 (high target) WR and don’t be afraid to keep building WR depth in the middle rounds.
The fourth issue was my QB, but I think I have this fixed with Rivers. I bombed using a third round start-up pick on Carson Palmer. However, when I knew the end was near, I traded him when he still had a little value. See the aforementioned Peyton Manning as Lesson #4 comes into focus: a top 5 QB is vital to consistently winning – PPR or otherwise.
So I have been taught my lessons. Let’s see what I learned.
I was invited this past year (2010) to participate in the inaugural season of the Fantasy Premier League Championship. I was really excited to participate in a new PPR dynasty keeper league as I immediately identified the scoring similarities and wanted to test my skills and theories against a few fantasy experts!
I was ready to go all in on my new strategy. Fortunately, I drew a pick towards the end of round 1 and despite knowing the statistics favor teams picking early, I felt really good. I was hopefully going to get to use two lessons above right away and in fact, lessons 2 and 3 since the top 5 backs would already be gone. Sweet!
As my pick came up, my top target’s names stared back: Larry Fitzgerald. I knew people were down on him with the QB situation but he is Larry Freaking Fitzgerald! A once in a decade talent without the injury risks associated with Andre and Calvin Johnson; a player who epitomizes hard work. This is a #1 building block and as I have witnessed, a major cog on a winning team in 2008 and 2009. To be frank, my nerves were tested, but this was the right call.
I spent the next few rounds building depth and doing a little protection. I grabbed Austin Collie, a player who I was especially familiar with – in the 11th and nabbed my favorite rookie WR, Tampa Mike Williams along with his young QB Josh Freeman, even later. I like upside over reliability late since I will usually turn over the bottom quarter of most of my rosters through waivers.
“Wha happen?”
Well, I followed the blueprint but lady luck always will always be a factor. Felix Jones caught enough passes to consistently draw starts but Stewart was a risky underperformer. When Ryan Grant went down to injury early, the Brandon Jackson hype train went in hyperdrive, which resulted in me being outbid for his services and drawing a waiver consolation prize of? Peyton Hillis. Hillis instantly became a weekly starter and suddenly, while not jumping off the page, my team became a consistent point scorer week in and week out. Everyone had a role; most were weekly contributors with each having the potential to produce above average numbers in any given week. The WR depth proved vital too as byes and injuries forced me to juggle line-ups almost weekly, some weeks forcing me into using a waiver option. I even had to start Brian Hartline one week to stay with my 2 RB - 4 WR weekly line-up strategy.
But somehow some way, I won the whole damn thing – a 24 team super league. I rarely set the high score but the consistency I was able to attain meant everything. I could count on a weekly point total that through various combinations (and the same core,) I was able to hit almost every week. This trend continued through the fantasy playoffs. Balance trumped explosion. It helped reframe how I thought of this little game we play.
I applied my lessons and it appears my hypothesis was proven correct – this time. Sometimes, it really is about having the best team and not about having the best players. Oh yeah, the gumbo. It tasted delicious! So maybe I’m not the best cook or metaphorical writer. Sue me.
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