Friday, November 12, 2010
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
Week 5 NFL Fantasy Football Review
A fantasy review of Week 5 with our usual long play logic. Dynasty players to watch and will the Cowboys ever win again!?
New podcast tonight!
Coming up on tonight’s podcast: ET and Fred review Week 5 in the NFL with all the fantasy relevant developments. ET says “I told you so” on Max Hall, the Cowboys lose again, and Green Bay is decimated by a brutal weekend. Deep dynasty prospect player dudes discussed – stay ahead of the curve, young man!
Friday, October 8, 2010
ET scattershoots on Mendy, Collie and Peyton
Week 5! Alright, kids. Here we go for real. Hopefully, your team is .500 or above, your first round running back isn’t a bust, and you have some semblance of a game plan going forward.
What have we learned so far this year? How did I draft?
Half the top 10 running backs drafted don’t actually wind up being top 10 backs. I only went RB in the first round in one league this year where there is a heavy RB tendency – and got a little lucky with Rashard Mendenhall. Mendy will be a top 5 pick next year but lingering doubts about the offensive line and Big Ben’s early absence mired his value going into 2010. But I liked that Roethlisberger was out because the Steelers would be cooked if they couldn’t run the ball and play defense. He was also the unquestioned #1 back on the team and even though he only had one healthy season under his belt, I relied on favorable data from @FootballOutsiders and my knowledge that the Steelers historically prefer to be a power running football team. Now that they have reestablished that running/defensive identity, don’t look for it to change significantly coming off this week’s bye at 3-1.
Consistent team philosophies seem to elude many fantasy owners. You should know the Steelers ALWAYS want to run even when they can’t and are forced to air it out. That’s how they win rings. The Colts pass, that’s how they win… well, at least one ring. Speaking of…
Austin Collie has been a dominant force - especially in PPR leagues - rewarding owners that took him after the top 100 players were already gone. As I’ve said all along: he plays with Peyton freaking Manning, people! Talent gets you to the NFL but great fantasy stats are often borne out of fortunate circumstances. Garcon comes back this week and Collie is a bit hobbled by a lingering foot issue but unless Garcon spent the last several weeks using Oil of Olay to cure his case of rock hands, Collie is here to stay. At this point his trade value is through the roof but if you can get him in a dynasty league, pounce – he is a borderline top 20 dynasty WR (per @ChrisWesseling over at Rotoworld) and a top 10 PPR WR this year.
My faith in drafting Peyton Manning in the early second has easily been the best pick I made this year outside of Collie. Because he is Peyton freaking Manning, people! I think the buttoned up attack the Colts were able to employ last year dimmed expectations in August but the Colts always skimp on paying defenders, keep a revolving door at corner and go completely limp when Bob Sanders is out of the line-up. They are going to be in a ton of shoot outs this year and currently at 2-2, there is little to no chance the Colts will be resting players down the stretch meaning you might actually get to use Peyton Manning throughout the fantasy playoffs on your way to a league title! (OK, I got a little carried away. Uh… Sorry.) Joe Addai has limited upside and Donald Brown is on the train to Bustville right now. Mike Hart is not the answer and they just signed Edgerrin James’ cousin Javarris James. Seriously? Collie and to a lesser extent Garcon will keep getting bubble screen looks on running downs.
Manning is looking like the sure fire #1 QB again - Brees doesn’t appear to be getting the TDs he has in years past and Rodgers’ yardage has slipped. I also find it a bit alarming that at the same time his sack and fumble numbers are improving that his interception total of 5 almost matches his 16 game total of 7 in 2009 – appears to be some regression to the mean here from Rodgers. Brees and Rodgers are great options but not head and shoulders above the likes of Tom Brady, Tony Romo and Phil Rivers. Matt Schaub has fallen back to the pack and quite possibly behind the emerging Kyle Orton and reemerging Mike Vick who will look to continue his torrid play after 1-2 weeks off with a rib ailment. I am not sure either of these players will continue at this rate so look to deal if there are owners still searching for QB help.
That’s all I have this week. Look for a new podcast soon (if Freddie can pry himself away from “working on my MBA” - whatever that is…) and the launch of the all new etandfred.com – which currently looks like my IT dude’s anarchist propaganda machine. Soon it will be football nerd central.
Good luck this week. Peace!
ET
What have we learned so far this year? How did I draft?
Half the top 10 running backs drafted don’t actually wind up being top 10 backs. I only went RB in the first round in one league this year where there is a heavy RB tendency – and got a little lucky with Rashard Mendenhall. Mendy will be a top 5 pick next year but lingering doubts about the offensive line and Big Ben’s early absence mired his value going into 2010. But I liked that Roethlisberger was out because the Steelers would be cooked if they couldn’t run the ball and play defense. He was also the unquestioned #1 back on the team and even though he only had one healthy season under his belt, I relied on favorable data from @FootballOutsiders and my knowledge that the Steelers historically prefer to be a power running football team. Now that they have reestablished that running/defensive identity, don’t look for it to change significantly coming off this week’s bye at 3-1.
Consistent team philosophies seem to elude many fantasy owners. You should know the Steelers ALWAYS want to run even when they can’t and are forced to air it out. That’s how they win rings. The Colts pass, that’s how they win… well, at least one ring. Speaking of…
Austin Collie has been a dominant force - especially in PPR leagues - rewarding owners that took him after the top 100 players were already gone. As I’ve said all along: he plays with Peyton freaking Manning, people! Talent gets you to the NFL but great fantasy stats are often borne out of fortunate circumstances. Garcon comes back this week and Collie is a bit hobbled by a lingering foot issue but unless Garcon spent the last several weeks using Oil of Olay to cure his case of rock hands, Collie is here to stay. At this point his trade value is through the roof but if you can get him in a dynasty league, pounce – he is a borderline top 20 dynasty WR (per @ChrisWesseling over at Rotoworld) and a top 10 PPR WR this year.
My faith in drafting Peyton Manning in the early second has easily been the best pick I made this year outside of Collie. Because he is Peyton freaking Manning, people! I think the buttoned up attack the Colts were able to employ last year dimmed expectations in August but the Colts always skimp on paying defenders, keep a revolving door at corner and go completely limp when Bob Sanders is out of the line-up. They are going to be in a ton of shoot outs this year and currently at 2-2, there is little to no chance the Colts will be resting players down the stretch meaning you might actually get to use Peyton Manning throughout the fantasy playoffs on your way to a league title! (OK, I got a little carried away. Uh… Sorry.) Joe Addai has limited upside and Donald Brown is on the train to Bustville right now. Mike Hart is not the answer and they just signed Edgerrin James’ cousin Javarris James. Seriously? Collie and to a lesser extent Garcon will keep getting bubble screen looks on running downs.
Manning is looking like the sure fire #1 QB again - Brees doesn’t appear to be getting the TDs he has in years past and Rodgers’ yardage has slipped. I also find it a bit alarming that at the same time his sack and fumble numbers are improving that his interception total of 5 almost matches his 16 game total of 7 in 2009 – appears to be some regression to the mean here from Rodgers. Brees and Rodgers are great options but not head and shoulders above the likes of Tom Brady, Tony Romo and Phil Rivers. Matt Schaub has fallen back to the pack and quite possibly behind the emerging Kyle Orton and reemerging Mike Vick who will look to continue his torrid play after 1-2 weeks off with a rib ailment. I am not sure either of these players will continue at this rate so look to deal if there are owners still searching for QB help.
That’s all I have this week. Look for a new podcast soon (if Freddie can pry himself away from “working on my MBA” - whatever that is…) and the launch of the all new etandfred.com – which currently looks like my IT dude’s anarchist propaganda machine. Soon it will be football nerd central.
Good luck this week. Peace!
ET
Friday, September 24, 2010
ET and Fred highlight Week 2 and look forward to Week 3 NFL action
The first 45 minutes covers Week 2 with the last half hour dedicated to Week 3. Disagree with Fred? Me too! Let us know!
Thursday, September 2, 2010
Less is More
We are one week away from opening the 2010 NFL season and I for one cannot wait.
I have spent the last several weeks participating in various fantasy drafts and auctions and trading my little heart out! I play in four leagues and have fought myself not to overly expand this figure adding one new team each of the past three years. Having too many teams cheapens the whole experience, right? If you play in forty leagues you are not going to win every single one – it’s a numbers game – and those numbers will equalize over a large enough data set. Your performances will be across the spectrum even if your rosters have a few players in common. You will win, lose AND draw every single week.
My advice? Go for it with a few teams and pay attention to the nuances within those few. I have never swept multiple leagues but I will eventually catch my white rabbit.
Try to challenge yourself by playing in different formats. Every league is different - from PPR components to two quarterbacks… dynasties to keepers to redrafts… auctions to serpentine drafts… live and online. Variety is the spice of life. All different league mates too. Varying personalities, perspectives and formats is really the best part of fantasy football. Just remember you can’t try them all at once.
Have I made all the right moves? Am I even finished? I don’t know but I have plenty to keep me busy over the next five months. So to all you fantasy addicts out there: try less to get more out of your season. You will enjoy yourself and won’t feel so conflicted about every single play on Sundays.
ET
I have spent the last several weeks participating in various fantasy drafts and auctions and trading my little heart out! I play in four leagues and have fought myself not to overly expand this figure adding one new team each of the past three years. Having too many teams cheapens the whole experience, right? If you play in forty leagues you are not going to win every single one – it’s a numbers game – and those numbers will equalize over a large enough data set. Your performances will be across the spectrum even if your rosters have a few players in common. You will win, lose AND draw every single week.
My advice? Go for it with a few teams and pay attention to the nuances within those few. I have never swept multiple leagues but I will eventually catch my white rabbit.
Try to challenge yourself by playing in different formats. Every league is different - from PPR components to two quarterbacks… dynasties to keepers to redrafts… auctions to serpentine drafts… live and online. Variety is the spice of life. All different league mates too. Varying personalities, perspectives and formats is really the best part of fantasy football. Just remember you can’t try them all at once.
Have I made all the right moves? Am I even finished? I don’t know but I have plenty to keep me busy over the next five months. So to all you fantasy addicts out there: try less to get more out of your season. You will enjoy yourself and won’t feel so conflicted about every single play on Sundays.
ET
Thursday, July 15, 2010
Jonathan Stewart's Value
One of our favorite players to debate these days is Jonathan Stewart, the third-year running back for the Carolina Panthers (I need to find a way to write Caaar-ro-lina Paaan-thers like Chris Berman says it.) I digress.
Anyway, I believe J-Stew is a beast, and while "stuck" in an ultra-productive platoon with a very talented DeAngelo Williams, he is gifted enough to produce another 1000+ yard, 10 TD season in 2010. However, in another year, at the ripe ol' age of 24, he will be ready to assume a 1600+ yds, 16 TD type of role for 4-5 years.
To support my position, I offer you the following age comparisons:
At 23.6 years old, J-Stew is YOUNGER than:
Chris Johnson, Age 25.0
AD Adrian Peterson, Age: 25.6
MJD Maurice Jones-Drew, Age: 25.6
Ray Rice, Age: 23.8
Jamaal Charles, Age: 23.9
Shonn Greene, Age: 25.1
Montario Hardesty, Age: 23.7 (rookie!)
Matt Forte, Age: 24.9
Steve Slaton, Age: 24.8
And is months older than:
Knowshon Moreno, Age: 23.2
Felix Jones, Age: 23.4
Ryan Matthews, Age: 23.4 (rookie!)
Rashard Mendenhall, Age 23.3
Darren McFadden, Age: 23.1
CJ Spiller, Age: 23.0 (rookie!)
What can we draw from these numbers? While Stewart has logged 2 full years in the league, he is essentially the same age as Matthews, Spiller and Hardesty. Matthews & Spiller will be top 4 selections in most rookie drafts and Hardesty is a sure-fire 1st rounder.
I traded my 2010 Dynasty 1st round pick last year (before the 2009 rookie draft) + Lendale White to acquire Stewart (along with a 2010 2nd rounder.) That 1st round pick is now officially 1.05 this year. While I had hoped that pick would be worse (meaning I would have finished higher in the standings!) I am still very happy with the trade. The big 4 in this draft - Dez Bryant, Jahvid Best, and the aforementioned Spiller & Matthews - will certainly be gone by the 5th pick. While there are some decent backs left (like Hardesty) at 5, there is no talent or situation that matches Stewart's. I would still trade out of the #2 rookie pick today to nab Stewart.
Anyway, I believe J-Stew is a beast, and while "stuck" in an ultra-productive platoon with a very talented DeAngelo Williams, he is gifted enough to produce another 1000+ yard, 10 TD season in 2010. However, in another year, at the ripe ol' age of 24, he will be ready to assume a 1600+ yds, 16 TD type of role for 4-5 years.
To support my position, I offer you the following age comparisons:
At 23.6 years old, J-Stew is YOUNGER than:
Chris Johnson, Age 25.0
AD Adrian Peterson, Age: 25.6
MJD Maurice Jones-Drew, Age: 25.6
Ray Rice, Age: 23.8
Jamaal Charles, Age: 23.9
Shonn Greene, Age: 25.1
Montario Hardesty, Age: 23.7 (rookie!)
Matt Forte, Age: 24.9
Steve Slaton, Age: 24.8
And is months older than:
Knowshon Moreno, Age: 23.2
Felix Jones, Age: 23.4
Ryan Matthews, Age: 23.4 (rookie!)
Rashard Mendenhall, Age 23.3
Darren McFadden, Age: 23.1
CJ Spiller, Age: 23.0 (rookie!)
What can we draw from these numbers? While Stewart has logged 2 full years in the league, he is essentially the same age as Matthews, Spiller and Hardesty. Matthews & Spiller will be top 4 selections in most rookie drafts and Hardesty is a sure-fire 1st rounder.
I traded my 2010 Dynasty 1st round pick last year (before the 2009 rookie draft) + Lendale White to acquire Stewart (along with a 2010 2nd rounder.) That 1st round pick is now officially 1.05 this year. While I had hoped that pick would be worse (meaning I would have finished higher in the standings!) I am still very happy with the trade. The big 4 in this draft - Dez Bryant, Jahvid Best, and the aforementioned Spiller & Matthews - will certainly be gone by the 5th pick. While there are some decent backs left (like Hardesty) at 5, there is no talent or situation that matches Stewart's. I would still trade out of the #2 rookie pick today to nab Stewart.
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
More smoke from the fire possibly igniting in Tennessee
chris-johnson-gets-more-support-for-his-holdout
Monday, May 17, 2010
The most important handcuff in fantasy football
I see it reported this offseason that Chris Johnson may be prepared to stage a lengthy hold-out that could potentially linger into the regular season. What I haven't seen written is who would stand to benefit the most from such a move by Johnson: Javon Ringer.
Ringer slipped in the draft two years ago, after entering his senior year at Michigan State as the top-ranked rusher on many boards. Johnson's explosive 2009 left him an afterthought behind Lendale White, who was jettisoned to Seattle this offseason.
I'm not telling you Ringer can match Johnson's lofty 2009 production, but if "Every Coach's Dream" holds out or gets injured - holdouts are often banged up if they miss much camp - Ringer stands to inherit a 20-touch role in an offense that loves to run.
It's always about preparing for what's next.
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Fantasy 6 Pack - Dynasty QB Free Agent Options
Here are six quaterbacks in attractive positions to succeed this year. They are all available in my dynasty league prior to free agency.
1) Charlie Whitehurst, SEA - Former Rivers understudy only behind a declining injury-prone Matt Hasselbeck.
2) Matt Moore, CAR - Will have to beat out Nuke Clausen but still has a chance to be a good #2 QB. More on Moore in my last post. Couldn't help it...
3) Dennis Dixon, PIT - Suddenly in the conversation after Roethlisberger's continued off-field issues. More upside than Moore. The Pittsburgh brass likes him and he may get a 4-6 games audition to begin the year if he can beat out Byron Leftwich.
4) Tavarius Jackson, QB, MIN - Vikes didn't make a move to upgrade the position behind Favre for fear he won't return probably so T-Jack gets another year of learning, possibly get a chance to redeem himself if/when Favre takes his final crushing hit.
5) Nate Davis, QB, SF - Alex Smith may stand as the best QB in the NFC West today but may not be the best QB on his own team. Davis has great physical tools but may be a year away. Still if Smith goes down or reverts to his former play, Davis stands to inherit the job and the porous secondaries of the NFC West.
6) Brian Brohm, QB, BUF - Former sure #1 QB in the draft has fallen off the map after not being able to win the back-up job in Green Bay. However, he gets a fresh start in Buffalo against the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Trent Edwards. Bills fans hope he was watching Aaron Rodgers closely.
Maybe one of these guys is worth a gamble if you need to develop a Dynasty QB and are all worth watching if not drafting in seasonal leagues.
1) Charlie Whitehurst, SEA - Former Rivers understudy only behind a declining injury-prone Matt Hasselbeck.
2) Matt Moore, CAR - Will have to beat out Nuke Clausen but still has a chance to be a good #2 QB. More on Moore in my last post. Couldn't help it...
3) Dennis Dixon, PIT - Suddenly in the conversation after Roethlisberger's continued off-field issues. More upside than Moore. The Pittsburgh brass likes him and he may get a 4-6 games audition to begin the year if he can beat out Byron Leftwich.
4) Tavarius Jackson, QB, MIN - Vikes didn't make a move to upgrade the position behind Favre for fear he won't return probably so T-Jack gets another year of learning, possibly get a chance to redeem himself if/when Favre takes his final crushing hit.
5) Nate Davis, QB, SF - Alex Smith may stand as the best QB in the NFC West today but may not be the best QB on his own team. Davis has great physical tools but may be a year away. Still if Smith goes down or reverts to his former play, Davis stands to inherit the job and the porous secondaries of the NFC West.
6) Brian Brohm, QB, BUF - Former sure #1 QB in the draft has fallen off the map after not being able to win the back-up job in Green Bay. However, he gets a fresh start in Buffalo against the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Trent Edwards. Bills fans hope he was watching Aaron Rodgers closely.
Maybe one of these guys is worth a gamble if you need to develop a Dynasty QB and are all worth watching if not drafting in seasonal leagues.
Friday, May 7, 2010
Fantasy 6 Pack - Dynasty Free Agents
Not sure about yours, but my Dynasty league opens up for Free Agency on June 1. Here are the 10 best available players in my league (21 slots x 12 teams =252 rostered spots total):
1) NYJ Def/ST - I can't believe I dropped these guys late last year. They are out there and my #1 priority this year. I know it's a DST but it's often hard to find a good team much less the consensus #1 DST going into 2010.
2) Jabar Gaffney, Den, WR - Maybe some of you noticed Gaffney had a decent year last season. With Marshall gone, he only has Eddie Royal and Demaryius Thomas - a rookie - as his main competition.
3) Chaz Schilens, Oak, WR - Maybe the addition of Jason Campbell makes someone in Oakland's receiving corp worth playing weekly. Schilens was a beast in a preseason game against the Cowboys in 2009 but was slowed by an early injury and never regained his form in the last half of the season. He's also entering the coveted 3rd year. (Honorable mention to 2nd-year Raider WR Louis Murphy)
4) James Jones, GB, WR - Hello my old friend. You probably know this guy. He is a physical beast with size and speed but questionable hands and a long injury history. Donald Driver has to retire or break down eventually, and Aaron Rodgers is poised to be a great QB for the next 10 years. Only competition from Jordy Nelson and the questions about player himself remain to be the new #2 for the Pack.
5) Matt Moore, QB, Car - A former 3rd-stringer in Dallas, Moore finally gets his shot for the Panthers but will face pressure from rookie Jimmy "Nuke" Clausen. Moore showed some promise late last year including a 299 yd, 3 TD game against Minnesota. He also has Steve Smith, formerly considered a top-5 receiver and a sure #1.
6) Julian Edelman, NEP, WR - The former college QB showed a lot of promise filling in for Welker last year. Welker is hurt again and if he doesn't start the season healthy or fails to regain his form (he blew out his knee in Week 17), Edelman is a player (read: starter) in PPR leagues once again.
1) NYJ Def/ST - I can't believe I dropped these guys late last year. They are out there and my #1 priority this year. I know it's a DST but it's often hard to find a good team much less the consensus #1 DST going into 2010.
2) Jabar Gaffney, Den, WR - Maybe some of you noticed Gaffney had a decent year last season. With Marshall gone, he only has Eddie Royal and Demaryius Thomas - a rookie - as his main competition.
3) Chaz Schilens, Oak, WR - Maybe the addition of Jason Campbell makes someone in Oakland's receiving corp worth playing weekly. Schilens was a beast in a preseason game against the Cowboys in 2009 but was slowed by an early injury and never regained his form in the last half of the season. He's also entering the coveted 3rd year. (Honorable mention to 2nd-year Raider WR Louis Murphy)
4) James Jones, GB, WR - Hello my old friend. You probably know this guy. He is a physical beast with size and speed but questionable hands and a long injury history. Donald Driver has to retire or break down eventually, and Aaron Rodgers is poised to be a great QB for the next 10 years. Only competition from Jordy Nelson and the questions about player himself remain to be the new #2 for the Pack.
5) Matt Moore, QB, Car - A former 3rd-stringer in Dallas, Moore finally gets his shot for the Panthers but will face pressure from rookie Jimmy "Nuke" Clausen. Moore showed some promise late last year including a 299 yd, 3 TD game against Minnesota. He also has Steve Smith, formerly considered a top-5 receiver and a sure #1.
6) Julian Edelman, NEP, WR - The former college QB showed a lot of promise filling in for Welker last year. Welker is hurt again and if he doesn't start the season healthy or fails to regain his form (he blew out his knee in Week 17), Edelman is a player (read: starter) in PPR leagues once again.
Monday, February 8, 2010
Friday, February 5, 2010
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