Week 5! Alright, kids. Here we go for real. Hopefully, your team is .500 or above, your first round running back isn’t a bust, and you have some semblance of a game plan going forward.
What have we learned so far this year? How did I draft?
Half the top 10 running backs drafted don’t actually wind up being top 10 backs. I only went RB in the first round in one league this year where there is a heavy RB tendency – and got a little lucky with Rashard Mendenhall. Mendy will be a top 5 pick next year but lingering doubts about the offensive line and Big Ben’s early absence mired his value going into 2010. But I liked that Roethlisberger was out because the Steelers would be cooked if they couldn’t run the ball and play defense. He was also the unquestioned #1 back on the team and even though he only had one healthy season under his belt, I relied on favorable data from @FootballOutsiders and my knowledge that the Steelers historically prefer to be a power running football team. Now that they have reestablished that running/defensive identity, don’t look for it to change significantly coming off this week’s bye at 3-1.
Consistent team philosophies seem to elude many fantasy owners. You should know the Steelers ALWAYS want to run even when they can’t and are forced to air it out. That’s how they win rings. The Colts pass, that’s how they win… well, at least one ring. Speaking of…
Austin Collie has been a dominant force - especially in PPR leagues - rewarding owners that took him after the top 100 players were already gone. As I’ve said all along: he plays with Peyton freaking Manning, people! Talent gets you to the NFL but great fantasy stats are often borne out of fortunate circumstances. Garcon comes back this week and Collie is a bit hobbled by a lingering foot issue but unless Garcon spent the last several weeks using Oil of Olay to cure his case of rock hands, Collie is here to stay. At this point his trade value is through the roof but if you can get him in a dynasty league, pounce – he is a borderline top 20 dynasty WR (per @ChrisWesseling over at Rotoworld) and a top 10 PPR WR this year.
My faith in drafting Peyton Manning in the early second has easily been the best pick I made this year outside of Collie. Because he is Peyton freaking Manning, people! I think the buttoned up attack the Colts were able to employ last year dimmed expectations in August but the Colts always skimp on paying defenders, keep a revolving door at corner and go completely limp when Bob Sanders is out of the line-up. They are going to be in a ton of shoot outs this year and currently at 2-2, there is little to no chance the Colts will be resting players down the stretch meaning you might actually get to use Peyton Manning throughout the fantasy playoffs on your way to a league title! (OK, I got a little carried away. Uh… Sorry.) Joe Addai has limited upside and Donald Brown is on the train to Bustville right now. Mike Hart is not the answer and they just signed Edgerrin James’ cousin Javarris James. Seriously? Collie and to a lesser extent Garcon will keep getting bubble screen looks on running downs.
Manning is looking like the sure fire #1 QB again - Brees doesn’t appear to be getting the TDs he has in years past and Rodgers’ yardage has slipped. I also find it a bit alarming that at the same time his sack and fumble numbers are improving that his interception total of 5 almost matches his 16 game total of 7 in 2009 – appears to be some regression to the mean here from Rodgers. Brees and Rodgers are great options but not head and shoulders above the likes of Tom Brady, Tony Romo and Phil Rivers. Matt Schaub has fallen back to the pack and quite possibly behind the emerging Kyle Orton and reemerging Mike Vick who will look to continue his torrid play after 1-2 weeks off with a rib ailment. I am not sure either of these players will continue at this rate so look to deal if there are owners still searching for QB help.
That’s all I have this week. Look for a new podcast soon (if Freddie can pry himself away from “working on my MBA” - whatever that is…) and the launch of the all new etandfred.com – which currently looks like my IT dude’s anarchist propaganda machine. Soon it will be football nerd central.
Good luck this week. Peace!
ET
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